In an expansive talk about the overall summer 2022 movie season that just ended, I was asked about the MCU, namely the commercial fates of Thor: Love and Thunder and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. I stated, as I have for the whole summer, that the theatrical performances of those two high-profile, big-budget superhero sequels were squarely in the realm of ‘good to great.’ However, the issue is one of A) too many in the media and among the perpetually online not taking the loss of China and Russia into account and B) the expectations for non-Avengers MCU movies being set way too high due to the performances of Captain Marvel ($1.128 billion in 2019) and Black Panther ($1.346 billion in 2018).

Doctor Strange 2 grossed $411 million domestic (more than Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2, Spider-Man: Far from Home, Iron Man 3 and Captain America: Civil War) and $955 million worldwide. Thor: Love 4 earned $340 million domestic (more than Thor 3, Guardians of the Galaxy, Joker, Aquaman and Spider-Man: Homecoming) and $750 million worldwide (noticeably more than the $712 million earned by Thor 3 sans Russia and China). None of the MCU films since Spider-Man: Far from Home ($390 million domestic and $1.131 billion worldwide in 2019) have played in China, and Russia is currently off the board due to the invasion of Ukraine, so that loss of revenue makes the performances look lower than they otherwise would.

If you add grosses that otherwise might have come from China and Russia, we’d probably be looking at around $1.1 billion for Sam Raimi’s Doctor Strange sequel (compared to $677 million for the Scott Derrickson-directed original). Likewise, we’d be looking at around $875-$925 million for Taika Waititi’s second Thor sequel (compared to $854 million for Thor: Ragnarok). I’ve long argued that China’s box office has artificially enhanced the global grosses of already successful worldwide blockbusters. It made the $1 billion-plus totals of Minions, Aquaman and Zootopia look even better than they already are. So there is a certain irony in the loss of China now having the opposite effect, putting successful tentpoles on the defensive because the global grosses ‘look’ smaller.

But the issue is not just China and Russia. Before Black Panther, there was a ceiling on MCU movies that didn’t feature Iron Man. That ceiling was the $869 million gross of Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2. However, Black Panther and Captain Marvel soared past $1 billion, with Spider-Man: Far from Home (sold as a direct sequel to Avengers: Endgame with the ghost of Iron Man haunting every frame) cracking $1.1 billion (including $200 million in China, +71% from Homecoming’s $116 million gross). This led to an unfortunate normalization of the MCU as a surefire $1 billion-every-time global franchise. That wasn’t true before Black Panther and it wasn’t true (Ant-Man and the Wasp earned $620 million in July of 2018) after.

The other irony is that the MCU is now facing the same inflated expectations that initially beset DC Films in its early days. Whether Man of Steel was a success at $291 million domestic (from a $128 million debut and only about 15% more adjusted-for-inflation than Superman Returns) and $668 million on a $225 million budget, expectations were arguably set too high in a post-Avengers world. Ditto Batman v Superman ‘only’ grossing $330 million domestic and $873 million worldwide, albeit with lousy reviews, poor buzz and a $166 million domestic/$424 million worldwide debut. Conversely, the expectations for a superhero movie in Marvel’s Phase One days were much smaller, with the upstart positioned as an underdog trying something new.

Iron Man could change the industry by earning $585 million worldwide, less than summer 2008 flicks like Hancock, Mamma Mia! and Kung Fu Panda. Iron Man 2 made $623 million, or less in the summer of 2010 than The Twilight Saga: Eclipse. The various comic book superhero movies of 2011 (Thor, X-Men: First Class, Green Lantern, Captain America: The First Avenger) could be out-grossed by Rise of the Planet of the Apes and The Smurfs. Thor’s $449 million worldwide gross made it the biggest non-Batman/Iron Man/Wolverine/Spider-Man comic book movie at that time. The First Avenger earned $376 million, about on par with Star Trek ($385 million) and Batman Begins ($371 million), but earned ‘extra credit’ for being a movie about Captain America that still scored big overseas.

Man of Steel got mixed-negative reviews and was quite frontloaded. Yet, there was particular cruelty to it being tagged as a disappointment for earning $668 million global, even while Thor: The Dark World would be an unmitigated hit five months later with $644 million worldwide. The extent to which Marvel could position itself as an underdog even after The Avengers earned $1.5 billion worldwide in the summer of 2012 is, in retrospect, impressive. There was a ‘Marvel has to show they can succeed despite xyz’ mentality attached to Guardians of the Galaxy, Ant-Man, Black Panther and Captain Marvel. Even as Walt Disney’s Marvel Studios became the dominant theatrical brand, they could still implicitly sell Shang-Chi and Eternals as underdog narratives.

However, that underdog mentality may have worn off. Credit years of Disney having (relatively speaking) ‘mask off’ moments. Think their initial reluctance to criticize Florida’s ‘Don’t Say Gay’ laws, turning 20th Century Studios into a Hulu content mill and shifting inclusive and/or original Pixar flicks like Soul, Luca and Turning Red to Disney+ while giving Lightyear a global theatrical release. Credit Marvel being the closest thing we have to a pop monoculture, with the Disney+ television shows clogging the media ecosystem and creating a sense of MCU overload from those in the media that have to watch them all whether they like them or not. Finally, the Phase Three grosses were so sky-high that expectations for ‘just a new MCU movie’ have been set out of whack.

I am not inclined to be super sympathetic to Disney’s MCU. They are Goliath and not David. Moreover, the focus on Marvel distracts from Disney’s genuine problems elsewhere in their theatrical and home video ecosystem (like big-budget Pixar movies making less theatrically than small-scale DreamWorks toons). But like a defense attorney representing a guilty client, the principle is the point. Although I am slightly amused that the burden of unrealistic expectations that helped fell the first handful of DC Films flicks has now been shifted to Marvel. While I’m expecting big things from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, let’s see how Marvel holds up now that it’s no longer an aspirational underdog.